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NOAA's annual report card on the Arctic, released today at the American Geophysical Union fall meeting in Washington, D.C., measures the changing climate of the polar region including warmer air and ocean temperatures and declines in sea-ice that are driving shifts in animal habitats.

Eyeing the Arctic: The southern Greenland town of Narsaq. Photo taken during a NASA Operation IceBridge flight April 26, 2018 [Credit: NASA/Joe MacGregor]

Now in its 13th year, the 2018 Arctic Report Card is a peer-reviewed report that provides an annual status update on the region and compares these observations to the long-term record. It was compiled from the research of 81 scientists working for governments and academia in 12 nations. This information can be used to inform decisions by local, state and federal leaders as Arctic residents confront the challenges and opportunities posed by a rapidly changing climate and ecosystem.

"The environmental changes in the Arctic underscore why NOAA continues to invest in Arctic research and activities, which improve the nation's economic competitiveness, national security, and the sustainable management of natural resources," said retired Navy Rear Adm. Timothy Gallaudet, Ph.D., acting under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere at NOAA, who led the news conference to release the report card. "This report will also help guide NOAA's priorities in better understanding the role of the Arctic in climate change and extreme weather; sustaining and growing fisheries; and supporting adaptation and economic opportunities in the region."


This year's report shows that the Arctic region experienced the second-warmest air temperatures ever recorded; the second-lowest overall sea-ice coverage; lowest recorded winter ice in the Bering Sea; and earlier plankton blooms due to early melting of sea ice in the Bering Sea.

In addition to annual updates on ocean temperature, snow cover, tundra greenness and melting on the Greenland Ice Sheet, the report card also includes reports on multi-year environmental changes, including a long-term population decline of the region's iconic wildlife species, the caribou. Other multi-year essays focused on the expansion northward of toxic harmful algae and significant concentrations of microplastic pollution that are transported by ocean currents into the Arctic Ocean from other parts of the global ocean.

Declining Arctic sea ice: The 2018 Arctic Report Card found the Arctic region had the second-lowest overall sea-ice coverage on record. The map shows the age of sea ice in the Arctic ice pack in March 1985 (left) and March 2018 (right) . Ice that is less than a year old is darkest blue. Ice that has survived at least 4 full years is white [Credit: Maps were provided by NOAA Climate.gov and based on data provided by Mark Tschudi./University of Colorado/ CCAR (NOAA Climate.gov)]

This report card is just one of many aspects of NOAA's role in the Arctic region. NOAA, alongside many partners, is monitoring Arctic conditions, pioneering innovative technologies, and creatively collecting data and other scientific information.

For example, new technology is revolutionizing our understanding of the Arctic's changing environment, beginning to fill critical gaps in ocean and atmospheric observations. This technology is unmanned, fast, cost-effective, sturdy enough to withstand icy temperatures, and able to collect quality data for lengthy periods. Further, NOAA Polar-orbiting satellites fly over the Arctic 28 times daily, collecting data vital to improve weather forecasts, help fisheries increase catch, and support safe, efficient navigation in challenging waters. Additionally, as Arctic waters become increasingly ice-free, and commerce and other interests grow, NOAA is working to update nautical charts and calculate tide and current predictions.

Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) [December 11, 2018]

Seventy percent of the current infrastructure in the Arctic has a high potential to be affected by thawing permafrost in the next 30 years. Even meeting the climate change targets of the Paris Agreement will not substantially reduce those projected impacts, according to a new study published in Nature Communications.

UAF researcher Vladimir Romanovsky poses near Fairbanks, Alaska in a place where permafrost has thawed, causing a surface disruption [Credit: University of Alaska Fairbanks]

"Much more needs to be done to prepare Alaska and Alaskans for the adverse consequences of coming changes in permafrost and climate," said Vladimir Romanovsky, a scientist with the University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute who has been monitoring permafrost across Alaska for 25 years.

Permafrost is ground that is frozen year-round for a minimum of two years. When it thaws, it can change from solid earth into mud. In many cases, the ground will slump, leading to destructive failure in any structures erected there.

"These observations have led me to believe that the global warming is not a 'fake' but the reality," Romanovsky said. "And here, in Alaska, we are dealing already and will be dealing even more in the near future with this reality."

Romanovsky is one of the study's authors, along with researchers from Finland, Norway, Russia and Michigan. The research is the first to explicitly show the amount of fundamental infrastructure across the Northern Hemisphere that is at risk of structural failure from permafrost thaw caused by climate change.

The paper reports that by 2050, about three-quarters of the population now living on permafrost, about 3.6 million people, will be affected by damage to infrastructure from permafrost thaw. In Alaska, about 340 miles of the trans-Alaska oil pipeline traverses ground where near-surface permafrost may thaw by 2050.

"The results show that most fundamental Arctic infrastructure will be at risk, even if the Paris Agreement target is achieved," the authors write. However, after 2050, attaining the Paris Agreement goals would make a clear difference in potential damage to infrastructure.

The authors looked at measurements of ground temperature, annual thaw depth and other data to make their projections. They note that because of the uncertainties, the amount of infrastructure at risk from permafrost thaw is probably not much smaller than their estimate, but could be substantially larger.

Damage to industrial facilities such as pipelines could lead to major ecosystem disruption if it results in spills. Energy supplies, national security and general economic activity could be adversely affected as well, the authors write. The Yamal-Nenets region in northwestern Siberia is the source of more than one-third of the European Union's pipeline imports of natural gas, for example.

Many parts of the Arctic's infrastructure have relatively short lifespans. Planners and engineers need to know in detail where permafrost is most likely to thaw as they plan for replacements, upgrades and maintenance. This study mapped such areas at a resolution of 0.6 miles, allowing them to target mitigation where it is most needed.

Source: University of Alaska Fairbanks [December 11, 2018]

Dolphins in the northern Adriatic contain high levels of PCBs – highly toxic chemicals banned in the 1970s and 1980s – and are passing the pollutant to their young, according to new research led by a marine scientist at the University of St Andrews.

Credit: Tilen Genov/ University of St Andrews

An international team of researchers evaluated PCB and other organochlorine contaminants in bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) living in the Gulf of Trieste (northern Adriatic Sea), the northernmost part of the Mediterranean Sea and one of the most human-impacted areas in the Mediterranean.

They found that, overall, 87.5% of dolphins had PCB concentrations above the toxicity threshold for the onset of physiological effects in marine mammals, while 65.6% had concentrations above the highest threshold published for marine mammals based on reproductive impairment in seals. Such high contaminant levels are of concern, particularly in combination with other threats to dolphins, including bycatch in fisheries, disturbance by boat traffic, and prey depletion.

The research, published in the journal Science of the Total Environment, involved Morigenos – Slovenian Marine Mammal Society (Slovenia), the Sea Mammal Research Unit at the University of St Andrews (UK), the Zoological Society of London's Institute of Zoology (UK), the Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (CEFAS, UK) and the Institute of Marine Sciences of the Italian National Research Council (Italy).

Credit: Genov et al, Morigenos – Slovenian Marine Mammal Society (Slovenia)

Tilen Genov, lead author of the study and a Ph.D. student at the University of St Andrews, said:

"We have been studying these dolphins for over 16 years, so we know most of them well. Through long-term re-sighting histories of identified individuals, we were able to link PCB levels in individual dolphins to parameters such as sex, reproductive output and social group membership.

"The research showed that males have significantly higher pollutant concentrations than females. This is because females offload a substantial amount of their toxicological burden to their young through gestation and lactation.

Credit: Tilen Genov/ University of St Andrews

"That is also why females that have not yet had calves had significantly higher concentrations than those that had previously produced at least one calf. Such results are expected based on our knowledge of mammal physiology, but it is not very common to demonstrate this phenomenon in wild whales and dolphins."

Dr. Paul Jepson, co-author of the study and specialist wildlife veterinarian at the Zoological Society of London's Institute of Zoology, said:

"This is another study showing high or very high levels of a very toxic and persistent pollutant – PCBs – in European dolphins. PCBs have the ability to cause diseases like cancer and can also suppress reproduction."

Source: University of St Andrews [December 10, 2018]

New NASA research has found that increases in the rate at which Arctic sea ice grows in the winter may have partially slowed down the decline of the Arctic sea ice cover.

The sun setting over the Arctic sea ice pack, as observed during the Beaufort Gyre Exploration Project in October 2014 [Credit: NASA/Alek Petty]

As temperatures in the Arctic have warmed at double the pace of the rest of the planet, the expanse of frozen seawater that blankets the Arctic Ocean and neighboring seas has shrunk and thinned over the past three decades. The end-of-summer Arctic sea ice extent has almost halved since the early 1980s. A recent NASA study found that since 1958, the Arctic sea ice cover has lost on average around two-thirds of its thickness and now 70 percent of the sea ice cap is made of seasonal ice, or ice that forms and melts within a single year.

But at the same time that sea ice is vanishing quicker than it has ever been observed in the satellite record, it is also thickening at a faster rate during winter. This increase in growth rate might last for decades, a new study accepted for publication in Geophysical Research Letters found.

This does not mean that the ice cover is recovering, though. Just delaying its demise.

"This increase in the amount of sea ice growing in winter doesn't overcome the large increase in melting we've observed in recent decades," said Alek Petty, a sea ice scientist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, and lead author of the study. "Overall, thickness is decreasing. Arctic sea ice is still very much in decline across all seasons and is projected to continue its decline over the coming decades. "

Petty and his team used climate models and observations of sea ice thickness from the European Space Agency's CryoSat-2 satellite to explore sea ice growth variability across the Arctic. The climate model results compared well both with CryoSat-2's measurements and the results of another commonly used Arctic sea ice model, giving the authors confidence in the climate model's ability to capture Arctic sea ice variability.

"The global climate model seems to do a good job of capturing the Arctic sea ice state and shows that most of the thickness change in the central Arctic is from thermodynamics, that is, ice formation and ice melt, although around the Arctic sea ice edge dynamics, which is ice transport, can play a bigger role," Petty said.

These model simulations showed that in the 1980s, when Arctic sea ice was on average 6.6 feet thick in October, about 3.3 extra feet of ice would form over the winter. That rate of growth has increased and may continue to do so for several more decades in some regions of the Arctic; in the coming decades, we could have an ice pack that would on average be only around 3.3 feet thick in October, but could experience up to 5 feet of ice growth over the winter.

It seems counterintuitive: how does a weakening ice cover manage to grow at a faster rate during the winter than it did when the Arctic was colder and the ice was thicker and stronger?

"Our findings highlight some resilience of the Arctic sea ice cover," Petty said. "If we didn't have this negative feedback, the ice would be declining even faster than it currently is. Unfortunately, the positive feedback loop of summer ice melt and increased solar absorption associated with summer ice melting still appears to be dominant and continue to drive overall sea ice declines."

Nonetheless, the increased rate of sea ice thickening in winter has other implications. As ice forms at the ocean surface, it releases a lot of the salty and dense water from which it originated, which sinks and increases the mixing of waters in the upper ocean. The more ice formation that takes place, the more mixing we expect to see in the upper ocean. Increases in this ice formation and mixing during winter may help mitigate the strong freshening of the Arctic Ocean's surface waters that has been observed in recent decades due to increased summer melt.

"This is altering the seasonal balance and the salinity distribution of the upper ocean in the Arctic; it's changing when we have fresh water, when we have salty water and how deep and seasonal that upper oceanic mixed layer is," Petty said. "And that's all going to mean that local micro-organisms and ecosystems have to adapt to these rapidly evolving conditions."

Petty's projections found that, by the middle of the century, the strong increases in atmospheric and oceanic temperatures will outweigh the mechanism that allows ice to regrow faster, and the Arctic sea ice cover will decline further. The study predicted that the switch will happen once the sea ice is less than 1.6 feet thick at the beginning of winter, or its concentration -the percentage of an area that is covered in sea ice- is less than 50 percent.

"This negative feedback mechanism increasing ice growth is unlikely to be sufficient in preventing an ice-free Arctic this century," Petty and his colleagues concluded.

Author: Maria-José Viñas | Source: NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center [December 06, 2018]

Global carbon emissions are set to hit an all-time high in 2018 - according to researchers at the University of East Anglia (UEA) and the Global Carbon Project.

A coal-fired power plant in Bergheim. Germany. Coal use in power stations is a major source of CO2 emissions [Credit: EPA-EFE]

A projected rise of more than 2 per cent has been driven by a solid growth in coal use for the second year in a row, and sustained growth in oil and gas use.

The news is a further call to action for governments at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP 24) in Katowice this week.

But the research team say energy trends are changing and that there is still time to address climate change if efforts to curb carbon emissions rapidly expand in all sectors of the economy.

The new data for 2018, published today simultaneously in the journals Nature, Earth System Science Data and Environmental Research Letters, reveals that global emissions from burning fossil fuels are expected to reach 37.1 billion tonnes of CO2 in 2018.

CO2 emissions have now risen for a second year, after three years of little-to-no growth from 2014 to 2016. The rise this year is projected at 2.7 per cent (+1.8 to +3.7 per cent). In 2017 it was 1.6 per cent.

The 10 biggest emitters in 2018 are China, the US, India, Russia, Japan, Germany, Iran, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, and Canada. The EU as a whole region of countries ranks third.

Lead researcher Prof Corinne Le Quéré, Director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and Professor of Climate Change Science and Policy at UEA, said: "We are seeing a strong growth of global CO2 emissions once again.

"Emissions need to peak and rapidly decrease to address climate change. With this year's growth in emissions, it looks like the peak is not yet in sight.

"To limit global warming to the Paris Agreement goal of 1.5°C, CO2 emissions would need to decline by 50 per cent by 2030 and reach net zero by around 2050. We are a long way from this and much more needs to be done because if countries stick to the commitments they have already made, we are on track to see 3°C of global warming.

"This year we have seen how climate change can already amplify the impacts of heatwaves worldwide. The California wildfires are just a snapshot of the growing impacts we face if we don't drive emissions down rapidly."

What is driving the rise?

This year's rising emission figures are largely due to solid growth in coal use, but coal still remains below its historical high in 2013. Coal use may soon exceed this 2013 peak if current growth continues.

Oil use is growing strongly in most regions, with a rise in emissions from cars and lorries, including in the US and Europe. Flights have also contributed to the oil rise. Gas use has grown almost unabated in recent years.

Prof Le Quéré said: "The growing global demand for energy is outpacing decarbonisation for now. This needs to change, and change quickly to address climate change.

"We need strong policy and economic support for rapid deployment of low carbon technologies to cut emissions across the energy and transport sectors, from buildings and from industry.

Global carbon emissions are set to hit an all-time high in 2018 -- according to researchers at the University of East Anglia and the Global Carbon Project. A projected rise of more than 2 per cent has been driven by a solid growth in coal use for the second year in a row, and sustained growth in oil and gas use [Credit: Global Carbon Project]

"Energy trends are changing rapidly, with coal use decreasing in many parts of the world and still below its 2013 level globally, and an explosion in wind and solar energy. But while renewables are rising fast, it is not yet enough to reverse global emissions trends.

"The rapid actions needed to address climate change also need to be fair to all generations," she added.

Dr Glen Peters, a Research Director at the CICERO Center for International Climate Research in Oslo, who led the emissions analysis, said: "Global commitments made in Paris in 2015 to reduce emissions are not yet being matched by proportionate actions.

"Despite rapid growth in low carbon technologies such as solar and wind power, electric vehicles, and batteries, not nearly enough is being done to support policies that limit the amount of carbon dioxide that is put into the atmosphere.

"The rise in emissions in 2017 could be seen as a one-off, but the growth rate in 2018 is even higher, and it is becoming crystal clear the world is so far failing in its duty to steer onto a course consistent with the goals set out in the Paris Agreement in 2015."

CO2 emissions from deforestation and other human activities on land contributed an additional 5 billion tonnes of CO2 this year, bringing total CO2 emissions to 41.5 billion tonnes of CO2. The global trends in those emissions are unclear due to large uncertainties in the data.

Concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere are set to increase by around 2.3 parts per million on average in 2018 in response to continued CO2 emissions, to reach about 407 parts per million over the year. This is 45 per cent above pre-industrial levels. The rise of CO2 in the atmosphere is the main cause of climate change.

The good news

Countering rising global emissions are 19 countries where emissions have reduced and their economy has grown. Aruba, Barbados, the Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Greenland, Iceland, Ireland, Malta, the Netherlands, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Sweden, Switzerland, Trinidad and Tobago, the UK, the US, and Uzbekistan have all decreased their emissions over the past decade (2008-2017).

Deployment of renewable energy worldwide is accelerating exponentially, with electricity generation growing at 15 per cent per year on average over the last decade. But this has not been enough to offset the growth in fossil energy because renewables are growing from a low base. This is changing rapidly.

Christiana Figueres, Mission 2020 campaign group leader and lead author of the Nature Commentary, said: "Global CO2 emissions must start to fall from 2020 if we are to meet the temperature goals of the Paris agreement, but this is within our grasp. We have already achieved things that seemed unimaginable just a decade ago.

"Exponential progress in key solutions is happening and on track to displace fossil fuels. Renewable energy technology costs have dropped by 80 per cent in a decade, and today, over half of all new energy generation capacity is renewable. Before 2015 many people thought the Paris Agreement was impossible, yet thousands of people and institutions made the shift from impossible to unstoppable. The same is true of decarbonizing the economy. Propelled by the pursuit of clean air, jobs and energy-independence among other benefits, the intrepid, collective efforts of young people, civil society, businesses, investors, cities and states are charting the course to net zero emissions by 2050."

How different countries compare

Almost all countries have contributed to the rise in global emissions, either through growth in emissions or through reductions that are slower than expected. China's emissions account for 27 per cent of the global total, having grown an estimated 4.7 per cent (+2 per cent to +7.4 per cent) in 2018 and reaching a new all-time high. The growth in emissions is linked to construction activity and economic growth, part of which may be due to temporary stimulus-driven credit growth. Energy from renewables is growing by 25 per cent per year, but from a low base.

Emissions in the US account for 15 per cent of the global total, and look set to have grown about 2.5 per cent (+0.5 per cent to +4.5 per cent) in 2018 after several years in decline. The new rise is due to robust growth in oil use of about 1.4 per cent, associated with an increase in car journeys, and gas of about 7.6 per cent. Emissions from coal use look set to have decreased by around -2.1 per cent in 2018, continuing a shift away from coal, with a 40 per cent decrease in CO2 emissions from coal since 2007, mainly towards gas, and more recently also towards renewables for power generation.

EU emissions account for 10 per cent of global emissions and a small decline of around -0.7 per cent is projected, well below the declines of ?2 per cent per year in the decade up to 2014. Estimated declines in coal and gas use due to the growth in renewable energy have been partially offset by a growth in oil use. The amount of fuel used for road transport and flights has surged by around 4 per cent in the EU. Overall EU emissions are still near or above their 2014 levels.

India's emissions, accounting for 7 per cent of the global total, have continued to grow by around 6.3 per cent, as their economy booms. Wind and solar are growing fast, albeit from a low base.

Emissions in the rest of the world, the remaining 42 per cent of global emissions, are expected to grow about 1.8 per cent (+0.5 per cent to +3.0 per cent) this year. The five countries contributing most to the rest-of-the-word growth in global emissions in the last decade are Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey, Iraq and South Korea.

Source: University of East Anglia [December 05, 2018]

Tests on more than 100 sea turtles—spanning three oceans and all seven species—have revealed microplastics in the guts of every single turtle.

Credit: Belle Co, Pexels.com

Researchers from the University of Exeter and Plymouth Marine Laboratory, working with the Greenpeace Research Laboratories, looked for synthetic particles (less than 5mm in length) including microplastics in 102 sea turtles in the Atlantic, Pacific and Mediterranean.

Synthetic particles were found in all of the turtles, the most common being fibres, which can potentially come from sources including clothing, tyres, cigarette filters and maritime equipment such as ropes and fishing nets.

"The effect of these particles on turtles is unknown," said lead author Dr. Emily Duncan, of the Centre for Ecology and Conservation on the University of Exeter's Penryn Campus in Cornwall.

"Their small size means they can pass through the gut without causing a blockage, as is frequently reported with larger plastic fragments. However, future work should focus on whether microplastics may be affecting aquatic organisms more subtly. For example, they may possibly carry contaminants, bacteria or viruses, or they may affect the turtle at a cellular or subcellular level. This requires further investigation."

In total, more than 800 synthetic particles were found in the 102 turtles studied. But researchers only tested part of each animal's gut—so the total number of particles is estimated to be about 20 times higher.

Researchers do not currently understand how synthetic particles are ingested by turtles, but the likely sources are polluted seawater and sediments, and eating via prey or plants.

Professor Brendan Godley, senior author of the study, added: "It really is a great shame that many or even all of the world's sea turtles have now ingested microplastics. At the moment, this is not the main threat to this species group but it is a clear sign that we need to act to better govern global waste."

Necropsies were carried out on the turtles after they died either by stranding or bycatch (accidental catching in fishing). The study sites were North Carolina, USA (Atlantic), Northern Cyprus (Mediterranean) and Queensland, Australia (Pacific).

The turtles with the most synthetic particles were in the Mediterranean—thought to have higher rates of contamination than the Atlantic or Pacific—but this study's sample sizes and methodology did not allow for detailed geographical comparisons.

Dr. Penelope Lindeque, of Plymouth Marine Laboratory, said: "While this study has been successful, it does not feel like a success to have found microplastic in the gut of every single turtle we have investigated.

"From our work over the years we have found microplastic in nearly all the species of marine animals we have looked at; from tiny zooplankton at the base of the marine food web to fish larvae, dolphins and now turtles. This study provides more evidence that we all need to help reduce the amount of plastic waste released to our seas and maintain clean, healthy and productive oceans for future generations."

Louise Edge, plastics campaigner at Greenpeace, said: "This important research demonstrates the breadth of our plastics pollution problem. Our society's addiction to throwaway plastic is fuelling a global environmental crisis that must be tackled at source."

The paper is published in the journal Global Change Biology.

Source: University of Exeter [December 04, 2018]

The pattern of uneven sea level rise over the last quarter century has been driven in part by human-caused climate change, not just natural variability, according to a new study.

Altimeter era sea level trends [Credit: John T. Fasullo]

The findings suggest that regions of the world where seas have risen at higher than average rates -- including the Eastern Seaboard of the United States and the Gulf of Mexico -- can expect the trend to continue as the climate warms.

The study, published today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, was authored by scientists John Fasullo at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Steve Nerem at the University of Colorado Boulder.

"By knowing that climate change is playing a role in creating these regional patterns, we can be more confident that these same patterns may linger or even intensify in the future if climate change continues unabated," Fasullo said. "With sea levels projected to rise a couple of feet or more this century on average, information about expected regional differences could be critical for coastal communities as they prepare."

The research was funded by the National Science Foundation, which is NCAR's sponsor, the NASA Sea Level Change Team, and the U.S. Department of Energy.

Finding the signal of climate change

For the study, Fasullo and Nerem, both members of the NASA Sea Level Change Team, analyzed the satellite altimetry sea level record, which includes measurements of sea surface heights stretching back to 1993. They mapped global average sea level rise as well as how particular regions deviated from the average.

For example, the oceans surrounding Antarctica and the U.S. West Coast have had lower-than-average sea level rise, while the U.S. East Coast and Southeast Asia, including the Philippines and Indonesia, have experienced the opposite. In some parts of the world, the rate of local sea level rise has been as much as twice the average.

Regional differences in sea level rise are influenced by where heat is stored in the ocean (since warm water expands to fill more space than cold water) and how that heat is transported around the globe by currents and wind. Uneven sea level rise is also influenced by ice sheets, which lose mass as they melt and shift the gravitational forces affecting regional sea surface height.

Natural shifts in ocean cycles -- including the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, a pattern of sea surface temperatures similar to El Niño but longer lasting -- are therefore known to affect sea levels. So scientists were not surprised to find that as the ocean rises, it rises unevenly. But it's been difficult to say whether these natural cycles were the dominant influence on regional differences.

To investigate the role of climate change, the scientists turned to two sets of climate model runs, known as "large ensembles": one created using the NCAR-based Community Earth System Model and one created using the Earth System Model at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. These large ensembles -- many model simulations by the same model, describing the same time period -- allow researchers to disentangle natural variability from the impacts of climate change. With enough runs, these impacts can be isolated even when they are relatively small compared to the impacts from natural variability.

The climate models suggest that in regions that have seen more or less sea level rise than average, as much as half of that variation may be attributed to climate change. The scientists also found that the impacts from climate change on regional sea level rise sometimes mimic the impacts from natural cycles.

"It turns out the sea level rise response to climate change in the Pacific resembles what happens during a particular phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation," Fasullo said. "This explains why it's been so difficult to determine how much of the pattern was natural or not, until now."

Improving forecasts

The research findings have implications for local officials, who are interested in improved forecasts of sea level rise for the areas they oversee. In the past, forecasters have had to rely on the global rate of change -- about 3 millimeters a year and accelerating -- and knowledge of the uneven regional impacts associated with continued melting of the ice sheets covering Greenland and Antarctica.

The findings add the possibility that the regional patterns of sea level rise tied to climate change can also be included, because the models predict that the regional patterns observed in the satellite measurements will continue into the future.

"We now have a new tool -- long-term satellite altimeter measurements -- that we can use to help stakeholders who need information for specific locations," said Nerem, a fellow of the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder and a professor of aerospace engineering.

Author: Laura Snider | Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research [December 03, 2018]

The International Union for Conservation of Nature's (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species is a powerful tool for researchers and policymakers working to stem the tide of species loss across the globe. But adding even a single species to the list is no small task, demanding countless hours of expensive, rigorous and highly specialized research.

This map shows the predicted levels of risk to more than 150,000 species of plants located worldwide. Using vast amounts of open-access data, the researchers trained a machine learning algorithm to assign a probability that a given species would qualify for at-risk designation on the International Union for the Conservation of Nature's Red List of Threatened Species. Warmer colours denote areas with larger numbers of potentially at-risk species, while cooler colours denote areas with low overall predicted risk [Credit: Anahí Espíndola and Tara Pelletier]

As a result of these limitations, a large number of known species have not yet been formally assessed by the IUCN and ranked in one of five categories, from least concern to critically endangered. This deficit is quite apparent in plants: Only about 5 percent of all currently known plant species appear on IUCN's Red List in any capacity.

A new method co-developed by Anahí Espíndola, an assistant professor of entomology at the University of Maryland, uses the power of machine learning and open-access data to predict species that could be eligible for at-risk status on the IUCN Red List. The research team created and trained a machine learning algorithm to assess more than 150,000 species of plants from all corners of the world, making their project among the largest assessments of conservation risk to date. According to the results, more than 10 percent of these species are highly likely to qualify for an at-risk IUCN classification.

The algorithm is a predictive model that can be applied to any grouping of species at any scale, from the entire globe to a single city park. Espíndola and her colleagues published their findings online in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences on December 3, 2018.

"Our method isn't meant to replace formal assessments using IUCN protocols. It's a tool that can help prioritize the process, by calculating the probability that a given species is at risk," Espíndola said. "Ultimately, we hope it will help governments and resource managers decide where to devote their limited resources for conservation. This could be especially useful in regions that are understudied."

Espíndola and her collaborators built their predictive model using open-access data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and the TRY Plant Trait Database. Lead author Tara Pelletier, an assistant professor of biology at Radford University, worked together with Espíndola to perform the machine learning analysis.

Espíndola and Pelletier then trained the model using GBIF and TRY data from the relatively small group of plant species already on the IUCN Red List. This allowed the researchers to assess and fine-tune the model's accuracy by checking its predictions against the listed species' known IUCN risk status. The Red List sorts non-extinct species into one of five classification categories: least concern, near-threatened, vulnerable, endangered and critically endangered.

The researchers then applied the model to the many thousands of plant species that remain unlisted by IUCN. According to the results, more than 15,000 of the species--roughly 10 percent of the total assessed by the team--have a high probability of qualifying as near-threatened, at a minimum.

Espíndola and her colleagues mapped the data and noted several major geographical trends in the model's predictions. At-risk species tended to cluster in areas already known for their high native biodiversity, such as the Central American rainforests and southwestern Australia. The model also flagged regions such as California and the southeastern United States, which are home to a large number of endemic species, meaning that these species do not naturally occur anywhere else on Earth.

"When I first started thinking about this project, I suspected that many regions with high diversity would be well-studied and protected. But we found the opposite to be true," Espíndola said. "Many of the high-diversity areas corresponded to regions with the highest probability of risk. When we saw the maps, we were surprised it was that clear. Endemic species also tend to be more at risk because they are usually confined to smaller areas."

The model also flagged a few surprising areas not typically known for their biodiversity, such as the southern coast of the Arabian Peninsula, as having a high number of at-risk species. Some of the most imperiled regions have not received enough attention from researchers, according to Espíndola. She hopes that her method can help to fill in some of these knowledge gaps by identifying regions and species in need of further study.

"Let's say you wanted to assess every species of wild bee on one continent. So you do the assessment and find that only one species is at risk. Now you've used all those resources to identify an area with low risk, which is still helpful, but not ideal when resources are limited. We want to help prevent that from happening," Espíndola said. "Our analysis was global, but the model can be adapted for use at any geographic scale. Everything we've done is 100 percent open access, highlighting the power of publicly-available data. We hope people will use our model--and we hope they point out errors and help us fix them, to make it better."

The research paper was published online in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Source: University of Maryland [December 03, 2018]

The research, led by the University of Plymouth, examined the uptake of nanoparticles by a commercially important mollusc, the great scallop (Pecten maximus). After six hours exposure in the laboratory, billions of particles measuring 250nm (around 0.00025mm) had accumulated within the scallop's intestines. However, considerably more even smaller particles measuring 20nm (0.00002mm) had become dispersed throughout the body including the kidney, gill, muscle and other organs.

These are some of the scallops used as part of the current research [Credit: University of Plymouth]

The study is the first to quantify the uptake of nanoparticles at predicted environmentally relevant conditions, with previous research having been conducted at far higher concentrations than scientists believe are found in our oceans.

Dr Maya Al Sid Cheikh, Postdoctoral Research Fellow at the University of Plymouth, led the study. She said: "For this experiment, we needed to develop an entirely novel scientific approach. We made nanoparticles of plastic in our laboratories and incorporated a label so that we could trace the particles in the body of the scallop at environmentally relevant concentrations. The results of the study show for the first time that nanoparticles can be rapidly taken up by a marine organism, and that in just a few hours they become distributed across most of the major organs."

Professor Richard Thompson OBE, Head of the University's International Marine Litter Research Unit, added: "This is a ground breaking study, in terms of both the scientific approach and the findings. We only exposed the scallops to nanoparticles for a few hours and, despite them being transferred to clean conditions, traces were still present several weeks later. Understanding the dynamics of nanoparticle uptake and release, as well as their distribution in body tissues, is essential if we are to understand any potential effects on organisms. A key next step will be to use this approach to guide research investigating any potential effects of nanoparticles and in particular to consider the consequences of longer term exposures."

A scan showing particles accumulated within the scallop's gills (GI), kidney (K), gonad (GO), intestine (I), hepatopancreas (HP) and muscle (M) [Credit: University of Plymouth]

Accepted for publication in the Environmental Science and Technology journal, the study also involved scientists from the Charles River Laboratories in Elphinstone, Scotland; the Institute Maurice la Montagne in Canada; and Heriot-Watt University.

It was conducted as part of RealRiskNano, a £1.1million project funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC). Led by Heriot-Watt and Plymouth, it is exploring the effects which microscopic plastic particles can have on the marine environment.

In this study, the scallops were exposed to quantities of carbon-radiolabeled nanopolystyrene and after six hours, autoradiography was used to show the number of particles present in organs and tissue.

It was also used to demonstrate that the 20nm particles were no longer detectable after 14 days, whereas 250nm particles took 48 days to disappear.

Ted Henry, Professor of Environmental Toxicology at Heriot-Watt University, said: "Understanding whether plastic particles are absorbed across biological membranes and accumulate within internal organs is critical for assessing the risk these particles pose to both organism and human health. The novel use of radiolabelled plastic particles pioneered in Plymouth provides the most compelling evidence to date on the level of absorption of plastic particles in a marine organism."

Source: University of Plymouth [December 03, 2018]

New research reveals the extinction of plant or animal species from extreme environmental change increases the risk of an 'extinction domino effect' that could annihilate all life on Earth.

Virtual earths modelling shows an 'extinction domino effect' risk ten times higher than forecast, indicating rising global temperatures due to climate change could wipeout entire species [Credit: Flinders University]

This would be the worst-case scenario of what scientists call 'co-extinctions', where an organism dies out because it depends on another doomed species, with the findings published in the journal Scientific Reports.

Think of a plant's flower pollinated by only one species of bee -- if the bee becomes extinct, so too will the plant eventually.

"Even the most resilient species will inevitably fall victim to the synergies among extinction drivers as extreme stresses drive ecosystems to collapse." says lead author Dr Giovanni Strona of the European Commission's Joint Research Centre based in Ispra in northern Italy.

Researchers from Italy and Australia simulated 2,000 'virtual earths' linking animal and plant species. Using sophisticated modelling, they subjected the virtual earths to catastrophic environmental changes that ultimately annihilated all life.

Examples of the kinds of catastrophes they simulated included runaway global warming, scenarios of 'nuclear winter' following the detonation of multiple atomic bombs, and a large asteroid impact.

"What we were trying to test is whether the variable tolerances to extreme global heating or cooling by different species are enough to explain overall extinction rates,"


"But because all species are connected in the web of life, our paper demonstrates that even the most tolerant species ultimately succumb to extinction when the less-tolerant species on which they depend disappear."

"Failing to take into account these co-extinctions therefore underestimates the rate and magnitude of the loss of entire species from events like climate change by up to 10 times," says co-author Professor Bradshaw of Flinders University in South Australia

Professor Bradshaw and Dr Strona say that their virtual scenarios warn humanity not to underestimate the impact of co-extinctions.

"Not taking into account this domino effect gives an unrealistic and exceedingly optimistic perspective about the impact of future climate change", warns Professor Bradshaw.

It can be hard to imagine how the demise of a small animal or plant matters so much, but the authors argue that tracking species up to total annihilation demonstrates how the loss of one can amplify the effects of environmental change on the remainder.

"Another really important discovery was that in the case of global warming in particular, the combination of intolerance to heat combined with co-extinctions mean that 5-6 degrees of average warming globally is enough to wipe out most life on the planet", says Dr Strona.

Professor Bradshaw further warns that their work shows how climate warming creates extinction cascades in the worst possible way, when compared to random extinctions or even from the stresses arising from nuclear winter.

Source: Flinders University [November 29, 2018]

Deforestation in Brazil has reached such epic proportions that an area equivalent to one million football pitches was lost in just one year, Greenpeace said.

Deforestation in Brazil's Amazon rainforest has been worsening with the loss of an area the size of one million football pitches in one year [Credit: Carl De Souza/AFP]

Between August 2017 and July 2018, deforestation increased by almost 14 percent with an area of 7,900 square kilometers (3,050 square miles) of forest cleared, according to the governmental institution of special investigations.

"It's more or less one million football fields of deforestation in just one year," Marcio Astrini, the public policies coordinator for Greenpeace Brazil, told AFP.

"Every year we have this news that forest is being criminally deforested."

Astrini said things could get even worse if president-elect Jair Bolsonaro carries out his threats to loosen environmental protection rules.

His appointment of Tereza Cristina as agriculture minister also caused concerns as she heads the agribusiness lobby in congress and is a supporter of clearing more forested area to make way for pasture land and agriculture.

The Amazon rainforest represents more than half of Earth's remaining rainforest and covers an area of 5.5 billion km2, about 60 percent of which is in Brazil.

But it is under threat from illegal logging as well as farming, in particular from soybean plantations and pasture land for cattle.

Between 2004 and 2012, deforestation in Brazil was slowed through controls imposed at a government level as well as by the private sector.

But Bolsonaro has said he will "end protected areas, indigenous reserves, that he will reduce the power to inspect and punish environmental crimes," according to Astrini.

"If he does all this, if he reduces the ability to punish crimes, Amazon deforestation could explode into an unimaginable situation," added Astrini.

Source: AFP [November 27, 2018]

A new study shows extreme heat events both in the summer and in the winter are increasing across the U.S. and Canada, while extreme cold events in summer and winter are declining.

Soybeans show the effect of the Texas drought near Navasota, TX on Aug. 21, 2013 [Credit: USDA]

A new study in the in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, a publication of the American Geophysical Union, examined absolute extreme temperatures--high temperatures in summer and low temperatures in winter--but also looked at relative extreme temperature events--unusually cold temperatures and unusually warm temperatures throughout the year.

The new study found both relative and absolute extreme heat events have increased across the US and Canada since 1980. This upward trend is greatest across the southern US, especially in the Ozarks and southern Arizona, as well as northern Quebec. That means there are more extremely hot days during the summer as well as more days that are considered extremely hot for the time of year, like abnormally warm days in the winter.

The new research also found both relative and absolute extreme cold events are decreasing, most notably in Alaska and Northern Canada, along with patches along the US Atlantic coast. In these areas, there are fewer instances of temperatures that are extremely cold either compared to the normal range, like in winter, or for the time of year, like unusually cold days in the summer.

Global mean surface temperature, the most frequently cited indicator of climate change, has been steadily increasing since the 1970s. However, temperature extremes pose a greater ecological risk to many species than average warming, according to the study's authors.

The new study is one of the first to explore relative extreme temperature events, which are changing more rapidly than absolute temperature extremes, and can have important implications for the environment, agriculture and human health, according to Scott Sheridan, professor in the department of geography at Kent State University and lead author of the new study.

"Typically for this kind of research we look at the highest temperatures in the summer and lowest temperatures in the winter. But we've also seen that extreme temperatures that are really anomalous for the time of year can have a high impact--these relative extremes are important and underappreciated," he said.

Investigating temperature extremes

To investigate how extreme temperature events have been changing over time, Sheridan and his co-author conducted a climatology of cold and heat events, both absolute and relative, for North America, followed by an analysis of how they have changed from 1980-2016.

Trends in Extreme Heat Events (EHE), Extreme Cold Events (ECE), Relative Extreme Heat Events (REHE), and Relative Extreme Cold Events (RECE) in days per decade, 1980-2016. Dots indicate grid cells  in which the trend is statistically significant (p<.05) [Credit: Scott Sheridan]

Relative extreme temperature events are changing faster than absolute extreme events, and often occur outside of seasonal norms, according to the new study. In the eastern half of the US, relative extreme heat events occur as early as mid-winter into early spring. Out-of-season extreme temperatures can cause early thaws in mild winters or catch vulnerable populations unprepared and unacclimated.

Across parts of the Arctic, extreme cold events have become almost entirely nonexistent and increasingly difficult to identify, according to the researchers.

"Relative temperature anomalies can trigger what are called phenological mismatches, where a mismatch in the temperature and the season can cause trees to bloom too early and birds and insects to migrate before there is appropriate food," Sheridan said.

Most notable is the highly anomalous warm event in March 2012, which included persistent mid-summer warmth in multiple locations. The event produced a 'false spring' in which vegetation prematurely left dormancy, so that it was not prepared for subsequent frosts, leading to large agricultural losses in certain areas, according to the researchers.

There is some evidence that early-season heat events are more hazardous to humans than heat events later in the season. When people are not acclimatized to hotter temperatures, they are more vulnerable to negative health impacts, especially the elderly, infants, young children, and people with chronic health problems or disabilities, according to the researchers.

The study clearly underlines the importance of not just looking at high temperatures in the summer but also looking at relative temperatures, said Kristie Ebi, professor of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences at the University of Washington, who was not involved in the study.

"Using information generated in the study on regional patterns in extreme weather events, particularly relative extremes in temperature, early warnings could be issued that include information on what people can do to protect themselves and to protect crops and ecosystems," Ebi said.

Source: American Geophysical Union [November 26, 2018]